Live Trade 75 – ANALYSIS and RESULT

Filed under: Live Trades |

Our live trade number 71 (silver), is still in play, as is trade 77 (CHF/JPY). However, trade number 75 has come to a conclusion, and it is another negative one I’m afraid. We must be due a winning run soon to put us back into profits. Anyway, here are the ins and outs of that trade and why I took it.

 

Figure 1.

Figure 1 shows the daily chart for the NZD/USD forex currency pair. What you will see is that the pair is in a very nice bull trend. The 8-day exponential moving average is crossed above the 21-day exponential moving average, and it has been for some time. As a result, we should only be looking to take trades on the long side so that we are going we the flow of momentum.

 

Figure 2.

Figure 2 shows that price approached the 150-day exponential moving average, which often acts as a good support zone. We can see that this zone had already been respected with an inside bar setup and bullish engulfing pattern, so when this long pin bar emerged, I put an order in at a 50% retracement of the pin bar and a stop loss placed just a few pips below the low of the move, with a target of two and a half times our risk.

 

Figure 3.

Unfortunately, Figure 3 shows that the trade was unsuccessful and that our stop loss was hit. The irony is that had we taken a 50% retracement of the earlier engulfing pattern with a risk-reward of 1:2, we would have been in profit. This is the way it goes unfortunately and we will just have to wait a little bit longer for those winners. We are now at -5% on our bank, but it will only take a couple of winners to get us back above water. Here are the official results:

 

Trade 75 = -100.91

 

Bank = 9,500 (-5%)

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